Historical Signal Backtesting
Replay any date range through the WHaiLE conviction engine. Every signal that fired, graded Big Win → Win → Flat → Loss against real price action. The data shows the work.
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Overall performance across all signal families and the selected date range. Hit rate = signals that closed Big Win or Win at the 7-day mark. Median peak = middle value of all peak returns — less skewed by outliers than the average.
By signal family
— · —How each WHaiLE conviction signal type performed in the selected window. N = total fires. Hit rate = % of signals that closed Big Win or Win. Median peak = median of all 7-day peak returns. BW · W · F · L = count breakdown by verdict. Best = the single highest peak return in the family.
| Signal | Thesis | N | Hit rate | Median peak | Avg peak | BW · W · F · L | Best |
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Audit trail · individual fires
—Every individual signal that fired in the selected window, one row per fire. Entry = median derived price in the ±2h window after the signal. Peak = highest price reached in the 7 days after. Δ% = (peak ÷ entry − 1) × 100. Bearish signals are sign-inverted so a positive Δ% means the bearish thesis played out.
| Time | Signal | Token | Entry | Peak | Δ% | Verdict |
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