New ALPHA

Historical Signal Backtesting

Replay any date range through the WHaiLE conviction engine. Every signal that fired, graded Big Win → Win → Flat → Loss against real price action. The data shows the work.

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Overall performance across all signal families and the selected date range. Hit rate = signals that closed Big Win or Win at the 7-day mark. Median peak = middle value of all peak returns — less skewed by outliers than the average.

By signal family

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How each WHaiLE conviction signal type performed in the selected window. N = total fires. Hit rate = % of signals that closed Big Win or Win. Median peak = median of all 7-day peak returns. BW · W · F · L = count breakdown by verdict. Best = the single highest peak return in the family.

Signal Thesis N Hit rate Median peak Avg peak BW · W · F · L Best

Audit trail · individual fires

Every individual signal that fired in the selected window, one row per fire. Entry = median derived price in the ±2h window after the signal. Peak = highest price reached in the 7 days after. Δ% = (peak ÷ entry − 1) × 100. Bearish signals are sign-inverted so a positive Δ% means the bearish thesis played out.

Time Signal Token Entry Peak Δ% Verdict

Methodology

  • Entry price: median derived price within ±2 hours of the signal (≥2 qualifying swaps, each ≥$500). Median is robust to dirty rows.
  • Outcome: peak derived price in the 7 days after the signal, capped at 11× entry to reject unit-mismatch outliers.
  • Verdicts: Big Win >+10% · Win >+5% · Flat ±5% · Loss <-5%. Same thresholds as the live whale-picks grader.
  • Bearish thesis signals (EXIT_PREDICTION, CEX_TOKEN_INFLOW, DRAWDOWN) are sign-inverted so a positive peak change means the bearish thesis worked.

Backtest data is informational only. Past performance does not predict future results. Deep Blue Alpha provides on-chain intelligence, not financial advice.

Not financial advice. All data is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. Past on-chain activity is not indicative of future results. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk of loss. Full Disclaimer