Measuring a signal honestly
Fixed rules, closing prices, a baseline to beat, and why most “hit rates” you see online are inflated.
Fix the rule before you look
To judge whether whale moves “worked”, decide the rule first: when the clock starts, how long you wait, and which price you use. Changing the rule after seeing results is how hit rates get inflated.
Use the close, not the peak
Grading a move by the highest price reached afterwards makes almost everything look good, because prices wiggle up at some point. Our grading uses the 7-day close (and 1-day and 30-day closes for longer views), never the peak.
Compare with doing nothing smart
A move that gained 5% in a week when ETH gained 8% did worse than simply holding ETH. That is why our Smart Money board grades each whale against holding ETH over the same 7 days. A good result is one that beats the baseline, not one that is merely positive.
Past results describe the past. They don’t predict future results.
Try it on a live page
- Read the methodology box. What is the baseline, and which price is used?
- Look at the grade distribution. Roughly what share of graded wallets beat ETH more often than not?
- Pick a top wallet. Is its result based on many moves or a few? Why does that matter?
Check yourself
1. Why grade with the 7-day close instead of the highest price in 7 days?
2. A move gained 5% while ETH gained 8% over the same week. Against the ETH baseline it…
3. A wallet with a perfect record on 2 moves should be read as…
Go deeper
How to Track Ethereum Smart Money: A Practical 2026 Guide →How to Identify Smart Money in Crypto Using On-Chain Data → Glossary: conviction score →Describes past on-chain activity and how our data is built. Not investment advice. Method details: data methodology.
